Monday, September 24, 2007

Why Daunte?

In 1973 the Raiders got off to a shaky start. The Raiders were becoming perennial playoff participants in part because of Daryle Lamonica's deep ball prowess. But in 1973 the Raiders seemed to have hit a road block. Lamonica had no problem moving the team between the 20 yard lines, but once in the red zone they were repeatedly settling for Blanda kicks. Ultimately the problem was resolved by replacing Lamonica with Kenny Stabler. To the fore, Stabler brought his talent as a skilled play caller on late drives and uncanny accuracy in the 10 to 20 yard range. It was the mid range accuracy that brought the Raiders out of their early season doldrums in 1973.

I bring this up because of the current similarity in the debate between Josh McCown and Daunte Culpepper. While many would be inclined to compare McCown with Stabler and Culpepper with Lamonica, it is, in fact, the other way around. It is the mid range accuracy which is key. Inside the red zone the deep ball is no longer an issue. Defenses don't have to worry about it, and offensive receivers can only hope to get so much distance between themselves and defenders. For that reason the defense can focus more on the run, and that is what makes working inside the red zone its own special problem.

Josh McCown is an excellent game manager with superior athleticism. McCown is going to run any offensive play that's sent him with near perfection, and that is why he's received Kiffin's preference. But the Raiders are not currently very effective inside the red zone, particularly against the Browns where they had to settle for three Janokowski field goals.

When defenses confront McCown in the red zone, they know that McCown is going to run any play well and call the correct audible if need be. McCown, however, is not that accurate. It's not that he has poor accuracy, it's just very average. Defenses know that they have to keep reasonably close to receivers, but they can play those receivers loose enough to focus on the run. McCown is a smart player, so he will not throw a pass to a receiver who is closely blanketed. McCown, lacking other options, will throw that ball away.

Daunte Culpepper, on the other hand, is extremely accurate both intermediate and deep. He has a live arm, and can rifle passes into receivers. Culpepper has been known to continuously fire passes into receivers who are being blanketed by throwing so that the receiver is always between the ball and the defender, thereby making it so only the intended receiver has a chance to catch the ball. If the defender tries to go over the top or through the intended receiver, it will generally result in a pass interference call, putting the ball at the 1 yard line with first down and goal to go.

That's the relevant difference. When opposing teams are confronted with McCown in the red zone, they know they have to watch the play and stay with it, but they can afford to play their backfield loose, and focus on the run. Confronted with Daunte Culpepper, they have to blanket the receivers while leaving enough at the line of scrimmage to stop the run. That last is a very difficult proposition with Jordan currently playing so well.

And this is why we need to stay with Daunte now that he's broken the ice.